The latest AP poll on the war in Iraq is out and the results have to be of interest to supporters of Ron Paul.

Asked if the U.S. made a mistake going to war in Iraq in 2003, 57 percent said yes, about the same number who said so in April. Most Democrats and independents agreed with those assessments, along with about three in 10 Republicans.

This poll illustrates both the tantalizing opportunity and the frustrating obstacle facing the Paul campaign.  Here Ron Paul stands, the only candidate in an 11 candidate field (give or take a few, who can keep track these days) espousing a position that 30% of the party agrees with.  Think of what that could mean.  In the latest Fox News poll, no candidate polled 30%.  Yet here sits Ron Paul, mired at 3%.  And what will that number be when the votes start to count? There is still a long time until January (give or take a month, who can keep track of what state wants to be first these days).  If the fall and early winter bring flareups or setback in Iraq, will that 30% swell to 40%?  Will it remain the same but become single issue voters?  And how does Ron Paul capitalize on this?

These numbers must pose nagging questions to the Paul campaign.  First, how do you reach these voters?  Ron Paul's name recognition still lags behind all the majors outside of the internet.  Yet here are 30% of your party's voters, and you are the only candidate they agree with on the issue.   Which raises the second question:  how important is this issue to the 30%?  Hopefully the Paul campaign is spending some of its hard earned money polling that very issue.  If 30% think the Iraq war was a mistake, but they all rank it as the fourth or fifth most important issue, things look dim for Paul.  If Iraq is a priority issue for those voters, Paul must find a way to motivate them and target them.  If it is not a top priority issue, the he needs to figure out if there are other common issues for them, and how he compares with them on those issues.  Third, and worrisome for Paul, are these Republicans so disaffected with the party, that they may simply not participate in the primary process?  After all, it is Ron Paul who has been warning the party that Iraq is costing them elections.

If the 30% are pro-life, pro-border security voters, who else can they vote for to address those issues AND oppose the war?  There is nobody else in the race.  However, if that 30% represents a moderate wing of the party, looking to expand entitlements, cave in on abortion or keep the tax structure intact, then Ron Paul has little hope of reaching them unless they are single issue voters on Iraq.

From this 30%, if the other demographics align, Ron Paul could carve a sizeable voting bloc that makes him a force in the primaries.  His campaigns primary research goal at this moment should be to learn everything they can about this 30%.  When that is done, Ron Paul will know if he has any shot to make noise when the real votes are cast.  We know, and have to admire, one thing about Ron Paul.  He is not going to change his positions to cater to that 30%.  So right now, he needs to figure out if this is a crowd he can woo. If not, even Ron Paul supporters have to ask, what issue, what stance, what differentiation between Paul and the other 48 declared candidates (slight hyperbole) will raise Paul into double digits.  I dare say, there is none.  For Paul to make noise, it's the war issue or npthing.